Customs Street Advisors

In the past year, there have been calls from several quarters for the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to carry out an overhaul of the regulations guiding the country’s securities market. In June 2009, the SEC, as part of its response to the challenges of regulating participant relationships on the Nigerian Stock Exchange released a set of proposed draft rules and amendments. Among these, draft rule B4(3) would require securities issuers to provide  investors with earnings guidance. Oddly, there has been little public debate on the draft proposals, while comments, inputs and submissions on the proposals were limited to less than three weeks from the date of publication. This contrasts sharply with the lively exchanges in developed country markets over the utility and costs of earnings guidance. The SEC’s draft proposal is a curious one considering that even in the United States, securities law does not require companies to provide earnings guidance. In this post, we briefly examine the key arguments of both sides of the debate, and proffer suggestions and safeguards Nigerian companies can adopt to limit the risks and meet the demands of makings these types of anticipatory business performance statements.

In his 2000 annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren Buffett came down hard on the practice of providing earnings guidance. In his view, the expectations that these projections created were clearly unsustainable, at best, and viciously misleading, at its worst. In addition, it created a perverse incentive for CEOs to manage earnings so that they could always beat the Street.

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The recommendations of the Dotun Suleiman Committee for the Review of Capital Market Structures and Processes have received a lot of attention in the press. As a result of public concerns over certain perceived abuses and improprieties on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, those  recommendations which  touch on the oversight functions of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over the exchange have been in the spotlight. However, one recommendation, so far adopted, that has received far less attention, is the introduction of book-building method in securities sales transactions. Known as Rule 78(c) it will have significant long-term impact on the Nigerian capital market through its potential to fundamentally change the content of public offering communications, structure of ownership of companies, surveillance of corporate governance, review of corporate performance and the quality of issuer-investor relations. In this post, we examine the trends that have led to the rise of institutional investors in Nigeria and why issuers may actually prefer them at first countenance. Then we discuss the likely implications of their established dominance on share registers and its implications for  companies planning to raise capital.

In a recent critical essay on the dereliction of duty by US money managers in the supervision of public companies  whose securities they buy and hold on behalf of private citizens, John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group, the giant fund manager, underlines the risks to the financial system as markets have gradually but surely transformed from owner-governed to agent-dominated systems. However, beyond his criticism of the ineluctable trend to greater ownership of corporations by fiduciaries, Bogle identifies their central role in contemporary capital markets, not simply as conduits of capital, but as watchmen of corporate governance and performance. Read More…